How the parties' paths to majority government have changed - 2019-07-27
There's an old adage in military planning: no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. It works just as well with election campaigns — certainly with any plans the parties might have drawn up when this election year began.
The Liberals and Conservatives have one target in October: 170. That's the number of seats needed to form a majority government. But the paths of least resistance leading each party to that number look very different today than they did six months ago.
In early February, the Liberals enjoyed a comfortable lead over the Conservatives in the polls. How that support broke down across the country put the party in a good position to be re-elected with a majority, even if it was reduced in size.