The latest 338Canada projection: So long, Tory lead - 2019-07-28
The Conservatives are still holding a narrow lead in the popular vote projection with a national average of 34.1 per cent. However, as we will see below, the concentration of Conservative support in Alberta and the Prairies makes the CPC vote significantly less efficient in our first-past-the-post system. (For instance, it probably would not matter much whether 55 per cent or 65 per cent of Albertans supported Andrew Scheer and his team, because it wouldn't win them any more seats).
While the recent gains in Quebec are certainly a plus for the Conservatives, they will have to find a way to win more Ontario and Atlantic districts to secure a plurality of seats at the House of Commons.